The problem

“100% renewable” is an annual sum.
Electricity is used by the hour.

A seaside hotel in Antalya, the COP31 host city, holds certificates for its whole year of electricity: half from a community solar plant, half from an Aegean wind farm. Over the year, the numbers balance. Here is one real day of it.

100%

on paper, with annual certificates

—

matched in the same hour on this day

solar certificates wind certificates load not covered that hour surplus that hour

Supply is modelled from ERA5 weather at the real sites; the hotel's load is synthetic.

Issue

Every hour is checked before it can become a certificate

The AI verifier compares each metered hour with independent weather (ERA5) and the sun's position, using gradient-boosted quantile models trained on the plant's own history. Wind is checked against a turbine power curve driven by hub-height wind. Hours outside the envelope are held. Verified hours go on-chain as one Merkle root per plant-day: one transaction for 24 hours.

Plant Meter export

Deliver & trade

Contracted shares are delivered; every surplus hour goes on the market

Each certificate is an ERC-1155 token tied to one plant and one hour. The plants deliver each consumer's contracted share, then list what is left, hour by hour, in escrow. Hours with no sun and little wind are scarce, so they are priced higher.

AI day-ahead plan

Buy the hours you will be short, and move flexible load to the hours in surplus

The planner sees only what was known the day before: the weather forecast issued the previous day. Gradient boosting turns it into tomorrow's certificates, hour by hour. Laundry, pool pumps, water heating and shuttle charging (15% of the hotel's load) move into forecast surplus hours, and the planner buys the remaining shortfall from the cheapest listings.

Consumer

Claim

Certificates are retired against metered load in the same hour, or not at all

The utility commits the consumer's 24 hourly readings as a Merkle root. In one transaction, the consumer proves every hour and burns certificates from that hour and zone. The contract caps each hour at its load and computes the hourly score on-chain, where anyone can recompute it.

Consumer

100%

annual certificates say

—

hour by hour, contract only

—

hour by hour with Saat, computed on-chain

Evidence on real data

What the numbers look like outside the demo

Türkiye's real grid, 2025

EPİAŞ real-time generation by source, via the IEA Real-Time Electricity Tracker (CC BY 4.0), every hour of 2025. Solar is scaled from licensed plants to Ember's monthly national totals.

The gap is real across U.S. grids

EIA-930, hourly, 2025. A flat 24/7 consumer buys wind and solar certificates equal to 100% of its annual use from its own balancing authority's fleet.

The verifier stops fake certificates that a capacity check cannot see

PVDAQ system 9068, a 4.7 MW tracker plant in Colorado (NREL/DOE). Trained on 2017–2022, calibrated on 2023, tested on 2024–Apr 2025 with simulated fraud.

Antalya, all of 2025

Plans use the forecasts archived the day before (Open-Meteo previous-day runs); the forecasters were trained on 2024 only. The market is the two plants' uncontracted output, listed hour by hour.